Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
